He's a plus runner and big league caliber shortstop with an 80-grade arm, above average power potential and bat speed, along with plus foot speed. Holliday was a projected mid-first round pick after a strong summer, but after the first couple spring workouts, immediately jumped into the top 10 and kept climbing. For context, Carroll suffered a serious shoulder injury in the seventh game of the 2021 season (after missing the whole 2020 season because of the pandemic) at High-A when he swung so hard on a home run that his shoulder couldn't handle the impact. I ultimately ranked him third, but it was essentially a three-way coin flip with Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson, who are all still tightly packed. His slider and changeup are both above-average-to-plus and his curveball plays around average but brings a nice additional look to the table. Possibly the highest compliment you can give this type of player: He's going to be annoying to fans of NL West rivals for a long time. 3 overall in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut in 2022, but needed Tommy John surgery. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox. Luciano signed for $2.6 million as one of many standout seven-figure signees in the 2018 international class that also included Francisco Alvarez, Diego Cartaya, Noelvi Marte (all ranked above Luciano on this list), Orelvis Martinez and Kevin Alcantara. Wicks went No. Type: Glove-over-bat center fielder, but probably still a league-average hitter. Bogaerts feels like a good comp since Lawlar isn't getting to all of his BP power in games right now and there's enough up-and-down to his defensive performances to make scouts pause. He went No. He had an unlucky ball-in-play-related slow start in 2022 but still ended up with 21 homers and 50 stolen bases split across Double-A and Triple-A. Waldichuk is doing a lot in his delivery but it allows him to get way down the mound from a lower slot with run and ride on his fastball, helping it play up from its 93-95 mph velocity. Montgomery is a shortstop for now and will probably be fine for a while, but any team with an above-average defender at short will slide Montgomery over to third whether he's a 45 or 50 defensively at shortstop. Type: 6-3 athlete who has grown into above-average offensive force in the infield. Walker could hit 40-plus homers multiple times, but there are a couple subtle adjustments needed, as mentioned above. The Rays picked him 63rd overall and it has gone very well so far. The sales pitch today is the same as draft time in 2020: plus hit/approach/power and the feel to get to it in games. The sales pitch is easy here: big league bloodlines (Matt is his father), with a chance for plus hit and power from the left side, and enough tools to stick at shortstop long-term. To wit, two clubs that evaluate players in similar ways gave me wildly different feedback: One said he's probably not a catcher and to move him off the top 100, while another said he belonged in the top 30 spots. Naylor was a first-round pick out of a Canadian high school (in 2018), like his older brother and Guardians teammate Josh (in 2015). In that case, Baltimore could slowly ramp him up to have the option to use him at full bore down the stretch and (whispers) in the playoffs. That's no problem, though, as Mayer is one of the best track-record shortstops in recent draft history, with scouts circling his name in their programs since early in his high school career. The D-backs took him in the fifth round of the pandemic-affected 2020 draft, and he showed that he was bound for a big league rotation. while run grades equate to specific times on a stopwatch, a 50 hit tool is about a .260 batting average, average fastball velocity is 92-93 depending on your role and handedness, and so on. Davis is most likely a first baseman if catching doesn't work out. Type: Advanced hit/power/approach at age 18. He'll get a big league look at some point in 2023 and I'm rooting hard for him because baseball is more fun with more Kyle Schwarber types. For still unclear reasons, both players slid out of the top three (Henry Davis, Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe went with those picks and are all much lower on this list or just off of it). He has advanced feel in all aspects of the position, grading out above average as a defender, thrower, and athlete behind the plate with rare speed for the position. There's a real shot he hits 25 homers at some point, but I'd expect more 15-20 on an annual basis. Type: Dynamic athlete with an everyday shortstop look. He's behind Cartaya defensively and in arm strength (Alvarez, too). Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Boston Red Sox 15 overall in the 2020 draft. Forrest Whitley and Sixto Sanchez are already cautionary tales, Grayson Rodriguez got hurt last year and Jesus Luzardo and MacKenzie Gore bounced back in 2022 -- but still not quite to the heights once projected. Arroyo will probably be able to make the subtle adjustments to stick as an average defensive shortstop, but that's still a bit of a question, whereas Williams is a slam-dunk shortstop. For game power, 50 equates to 15-18 homers per year, 55 is 19-22, 60 is about 25, 65 is about 30, etc. His pitch selection is among the best in the minors -- let's call it plus-plus -- he has had all-field plus power and a swing geared to getting to it for years. Prospect Rankings Depth Charts MLB Players The D-backs have young starting pitching on the 40-man that may get shots first (Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry) but Pfaadt is the best of the bunch, with a mid-90's heater, slider, changeup and command that all grade out as 55- or 60-grade. You can see why the Padres wouldn't include both Wood and Merrill along with the others in the Juan Soto trade package: They could both be franchise cornerstones if it all clicks. There's also a lot of uncertainty with prospects, so it's by default looking at the rosier potential outcomes compared to some current MLB players. Type: Power-and-patience outfielder with some defensive value. Rocchio doesn't come with sexy upside as he's 5-10 and his best selling points are plus contact skills, a solid approach and a steady glove at shortstop. In Low-A, Rodriguez had walked 57 times and struck out 52 times through 47 games. Type: Corner-utility type who can really hit. Michael Busch, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies He's on the 40-man and will likely make his big league debut at some point in 2023 with an advanced feel for the game that suggests he'll do well in any role. Henderson and Carroll have separated themselves from the pack and are a near coinflip for the top spot. Sweeney was a late pop-up name in the spring leading up to the 2021 draft with a lack of previous buzz due to playing at Eastern Illinois, not being in the elite summer wood bat leagues and having a big leg kick in his swing that turned off some scouts. For a quick overview of the tools grades on the 20-80 scale that are used heavily throughout this list -- and are the industry standard across baseball -- along with other key terms used in the rankings click here. I'm gonna stop you right there. He is a plus runner and at least a plus defender in center field, with 15-20 homer upside and solid feel to hit, but he can get too aggressive at times, which would undermine his contact and power potential. Max Muncy, SS, Oakland Athletics With the top free agents signed, here's where our experts think each team stands midway through the offseason. Hit: 35/60, Game Power: 30/50, Raw Power: 55/60, Speed: 60/60, Fielding: 40/55, Throwing: 60/60, Type: Plus athlete with plus feel for the game. How bright is your team's future? He spent a year at a junior college, then two years exclusively in the bullpen for the Aggies, eventually being passed over in the five-round 2020 draft. The Guardians turn mid-to-late-round college pitchers into real prospects at a frightening rate, and Bibee is the latest example. Quero was a nice sleeper pick at this time last year, then he had a huge 2022 season, particularly at the plate: He hit .312/.435/.530 with 17 homers, 12 stolen bases, 14% walks and 18% strikeouts as a teenage catcher at Low-A. Type: Premium athlete with potential plus fastball/curveball/command combination. a solid, low-end starter at any other position) would be in the top dozen catchers. Garcia is a plus hitter with an excellent approach and a steady glove at shortstop, but below-average in-game power. His slider is a clear third pitch but is average more often than not, so the whole package profiles as a midrotation type. Turang's star dimmed a bit in the year before the draft, slipping to the 21st overall pick in 2018, but the basic scouting report has been the same for a long time. The biggest reason the Padres are as good as they are is they don't need a ton of sterling scouting looks to identify and gamble on a potential star. Type: On the right day, four plus pitches and starter command. To give further context, I've also included some categories along with tool grades. WebStatcast Leaders Baseball Savant Top Prospect Stats. The question is how often he'll put that whole package together and whether he is capable of being frontline-starter-level good after dialing things down to a level where he can also put up 180-plus innings. Wood still swung and missed too often the summer after signing, but his approach clicked in 2022 to the point that he was done a disservice not being promoted to High-A by Washington after being the headliner in the Juan Soto trade (ahead of Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana, both later on this list, and MacKenzie Gore, who has graduated but was on last year's list). The Cardinals' offseason signing of Willson Contreras and retaining of Andrew Knizner blocks Herrera's path to immediate big league playing time, especially with the glut of young position players who are in St. Louis or close. Like Crow-Armstrong, Casas was well-known early in his prep career, showing plus power at the same high school that produced Eric Hosmer. There's frontline potential here, and you can scout the statline a bit: If he keeps his strikeout rate over 10 per nine innings and his walks gets below three per nine innings in the upper minors, he'll probably be moving up this list. Pfaadt popped up in the Cape Cod League as a new name scouts were intrigued by, a Division 2 righty from Bellarmine (KY) reaching the mid-90s with big league talent, but generally unproven and likely to end up a reliever. Francisco lvarez, C, Mets. Turang has been famous to scouts for years, looking like a real candidate to be the No. He was part of the pandemic-affected 2020 draft class and came out of the gates slower than expected that spring, then never got a chance to right the ship. Type: Power-and-patience package at the plate, probably a catcher. The issue is he's likely always going to run higher strikeout rates because of below-average bat control tied to what he does to get to that power. His stuff spiked almost immediately, with 3-4 added ticks of velo giving him four above-average pitches with the same strong command, though his fastball doesn't have the en vogue bat-missing shape to it. The Dodgers are hoping Vargas can be an average defender at third base, but he's a bit below that there and at second base. Frelick was a late bloomer as a standout multisport athlete in Massachusetts who turned into a middle first-round pick at Boston College. I think the four names in the Reminds Me Of section give you an idea of the different paths his career could take, with Gary Sanchez's a familiar roller-coaster ride that Mets fans are hoping to improve upon. He has huge power and beats up on minor league pitching, but the question is if his contact qualities and pitch selection will be good enough at the big league level for him to hit to get to that power. Lewis has been on the verge of sticking in the big leagues for years now -- but the 2017 No. He has plus power potential and solid-average tools across the board. The O's grabbed him with the 41st overall pick and, as with a number of recent college position players playing in Baltimore's system, 2022 was a breakout year. Luisangel Acuna, SS, Texas Rangers That line of thinking would mean that Collier is at risk of being a bat-first corner utility type on the backup/starter borderline. Esteury Ruiz, CF, Oakland Athletics Now you understand how a softer tossing high school kid that now has grown into league average fastball velocity can strike that many guys out and is expected to do it against big league hitters, too. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs This offseason's four biggest free agents signed massive megadeals that are not only risky, but that started a historic hot stove trend. Type: Late bloomer with above-average tools. Ford is also progressing behind the plate to where I think he'll be an average defender with an average arm in time, but that's still a question, though I think he'd bring defensive value at third base or in the outfield. I mention Realmuto as a comp since the athleticism is comparable and Realmuto had a power spike in his third full MLB year; the tools are here for Moreno to make a similar leap. Type: Mid-90s fastball with a plus-plus slider, recovering from Tommy John. I would also submit that if they didn't pick either player, they would not have had enough prospects to swing the Juan Soto trade. He does a version of the trendy mound positioning I describe in Kyle Harrison's blurb, slinging from a low slot with good extension. I expect these two to be ranked next to each other again next year and at this trajectory, they'll be fighting for the top spot on the list. He made his big league debut last summer and should get an extended low-pressure big league look on the rebuilding Nationals this year. On the bright side, this is the part of hitting that clubs think is most coachable. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles. Dominguez has explosive, plus-plus raw power, plus foot speed, and a plus arm packed into a muscular 5-10 frame. Salas has plus bat control, a decent approach and solid-average raw power along with a good enough glove to maybe stick at shortstop, though he might also slide over to second base. After three solid years at Cal Poly, his back was never an issue and he raked in the spring -- and in the summers for Team USA -- en route to going eighth overall last summer. Type: One of the best amateur hitters in recent memory, with Jose Ramirez or Rafael Devers vibes. I think he'll be a superior backup option to Knizner by the end of 2023. 2 Grizzlies, LIVE Transfer Talk: Man United, PSG to battle for Abraham, Liverpool rescue three points, chase top-four finish after surviving epic Spurs comeback, Bayern back in charge, Yamal makes history, Napoli's party spoiled: Weekend Review, Who has the most talent in the minors? The other question at draft time was if his pitch selection and approach would be good enough to get to all of his power in games? Henderson looked like he'd be a late first-round pick in 2019 as a well-rounded high school shortstop in Alabama. Over the past two seasons, Rocchio has hit 33 home runs and stolen 35 bases, showing his feel for the game by getting the most out of good-not-great raw tools. The selling points were deception, feel and knowing how to pitch, more than the raw stuff. Type: The biggest post-draft riser in baseball. Type: Projection righty with frontline potential. Keith was an intriguing switch-hitting two-way prospect from a Mississippi high school in the 2020 draft, but you had to project to see a plus tool. Graceffo threw 139.1 innings in 2022, mostly in Double-A, so he is in line to get some big league time toward the end of 2023 if the deep Cardinals rotation shows some weakness or the bullpen just needs some length. He now sits 94-97 mph with plus ride up in the zone, and a plus, 87-89 mph slider that drew a 45% chase rate last season. Liover Peguero, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates Type: Plus hitter and steady defender, but with below average power. One exec summed up my conundrum thusly: "No one knows what to do with Chourio. Brown was a spring popup prospect at a Division II school going into the 2019 draft. Type: If it all clicks, it looks like Max Scherzer.
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